University of Michigan metrics were released today, and probably to nobody’s surprise they were weaker than estimates. At least 6 different consumer facing companies have mentioned they were seeing reduced consumer confidence recently, RH, DKS, DAL, UAL, KSS, and WMT.
When markets head into rough waters many like to fall back on technical charts for guidance. We thought it worth highlighting a few this week.
In previous pieces we have presented this input of the CPI, the contribution of Shelter. This input accounts for 36.22% of the YoY CPI. The metric has been slowly but steadily moving lower since the Q2 2023.
In previous pieces we have presented this input of the CPI, the contribution of Shelter. This input accounts for 36.22% of the YoY CPI. The metric has been slowly but steadily moving lower since the Q2 2023.
Valentine’s Day brought a disappointing Retail Sales report from the US Census Bureau, with a notable miss in the Control Group—1.1% below expectations. This metric feeds into key macro indices, and its impact was quickly reflected in the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now estimate, which was revised down from +2.9% to +2.3% for Q1. With half the quarter still ahead, this adjustment is worth watching.
For hedge funds, trading is more than just executing buy and sell orders—it’s a critical function that directly impacts alpha generation, risk management, and investor confidence.
India Since late September 2024, India’s NIFTY Index has fallen nearly -13%. According to one broker’s research, current market sentiment makes for an interesting entry point: Although the Sentiment metric above looks pretty good, we thought looking at a forward multiple might shed more light on the timing accuracy. The Index is currently at a […]
CPI & 10yr.
Occasionally, it’s nice to look back at some older charts or metrics that used to be in greater focus, just to review. One that caught our eye recently is the correlation between US CPI and both the 10yr TSY as well as the 2yr TSY.
The week felt unusually long with the Inauguration to start, and then a flurry of activity as promised by the new administration. But that did not translate into any real identifiable market patterns worthy of passing along this week. We did see plenty of one-off impactful points though, so in no particular order we will […]
AI & Employment This past week the JPM Healthcare conference took place. The NVDA CEO and founder, Jensen Huang, took the stage with some Healthcare industry leaders for a fireside chat to discuss AI’s impact in healthcare. It got us thinking how will AI impact healthcare overall. The above chart would suggest a fast-growing addressable […]
