The week felt unusually long with the Inauguration to start, and then a flurry of activity as promised by the new administration. But that did not translate into any real identifiable market patterns worthy of passing along this week. We did see plenty of one-off impactful points though, so in no particular order we will […]
AI & Employment This past week the JPM Healthcare conference took place. The NVDA CEO and founder, Jensen Huang, took the stage with some Healthcare industry leaders for a fireside chat to discuss AI’s impact in healthcare. It got us thinking how will AI impact healthcare overall. The above chart would suggest a fast-growing addressable […]
Employment & Rates Still undefeated in signaling a US Recession? It’s an interesting thought considering some of the Economic data reported this week. NFP came in strongly above expectations today, as well as JOLTS earlier in the week showing better Job openings than expected. The level of the 10yr TSY and the GDP YoY should […]
Performance As the year came to a close we thought offering a brief summation of performance metrics might help with perspective. MS PB Performance estimates: The market managed to complete the year without having a double digit draw down. Inflation A potential concern heading into the new year is the delayed impact to the lower […]
Power Demand Heading into year-end, we obviously start to think about the set up to close the year, and more specifically, the setup to open the next year. One chart that is hard not to pay attention to is this one concerning power demand. GS has a basket that tries to encapsulate this demand: The […]
TSY Curve Is it different this time? Since 1992, each time the 3m/10yr TSY spread has gone negative the US has entered a recession.The question this time is the time delay: The 3 previous occurrences have generated a recession within a year. What is noticeable is that each time the recession itself did not begin […]
South Korea Well, it’s not every week a country in the G20 declares martial law, but this week it did briefly. There was a pretty sharp reaction to it, but by the end of the week its impact had been negligible. Looking at the KOSPI Index as a proxy, we can see that on a […]
Treasuries Has the US Treasury market withstood the onslaught of Foreign selling pressure? Japan and China are dumping US Treasuries: In Q3 2024, Japan sold a net $61.9 billion of Treasuries, the most on record. This was the second consecutive quarter of selling after $40.5 billion in Q2. At the same time, China dumped $51.3 […]
The XRT, S&P Retail ETF, is hitting a new 52-week high today, Friday November 22, so the Consumer must be a in great shape! We have addressed employment and the credit stress on the Consumer previously, but according to the action in the ETF, the outlook must be rosy. So, we decided to look under […]
Definition of Stagflation: Recent economic metrics show some concern we could be nearing a period similar to that of the 1970s. Both the CPI and PPI, Finished Goods less Food & Energy, ran up into 1974. The Unemployment rate, and EHUPUS Index followed and the QoQ GDP went negative for 3 quarters in a row, […]
