Weekly Content: The Tweet/ GDP Estimates/ VIX/ Jamie & Mark/ Next weeks earnings

The Tweet/ GDP Estimates/ VIX/ Jamie & Mark/ Next weeks earnings

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A shortened holiday week which fortunately felt a bit less volatile in the markets, but not on the news flow side. Many consequential data points, but tying a cohesive narrative through them might be a bit of a stretch.

Nonetheless, we are going to give it a shot!

RRP’s

We start with the tweet that surprised nobody but traditional media could not help but focus on.

Whether the President can actually do this is yet to be seen, please note last week we mentioned that the path for such a move may have been paved with the recent SCOTUS decision.

This chart caught our eye this week, which we will explain if you indulge us briefly.

With a little help from Google, the definition of Reverse repurchase agreements:

The most significant point above we think is at the very bottom, “if the Fed conducts fewer reverse repos, it increases the money supply, potentially leading to lower interest rates.”

The chart above shows the level activity is certainly headed in the right direction, so we wonder if Chairman Powell is in fact trying to get ahead of further tweets like the one above?

GDP

The great GDP debate continues. The battle between the Atlanta and New York Fed estimating the Q1 US GDP continues. The race ends April 30, 2025.

Presently the NY Fed is predicting the Q1 US GDP at 2.59% growth.

The Atlanta folks on the other hand see it below 0.

Regardless of which branch of the Federal reserve is correct, this is backward looking data.

We think more recent anecdotal data is piling up in favor of Atlanta.

Chinese purchases of American oil are down -90% Y/Y, while Chinese purchases of Canadian oil are up +700% Y/Y.
That’s a $20B annual loss for the United States at $60/barrel.

Home builders are beginning to show signs of cracking. DR Horton, America’s largest builder, just reported a 15% YoY contraction in sales orders. The largest contractions happened in the Southwest / Southeast, where sales dropped nearly 25%. A slowdown of this magnitude is a sign of decreasing consumer confidence and an oversupply of housing in America’s Sun Belt.


Which combined with this tweet:

Does not give one the warm and fuzzies around the residential home market.

Recent shipping metrics, obviously not included in the backward looking Q1 GDP, have been falling off the ship.

Which will have quite the future impact on the domestic trucking industry.

But, it’s not just goods, its people too!

As we have presented before, the potential for a slower economy is manifesting itself in surveys, or the so called “soft data”.

Expectations and Sentiment direct from U of M website:

https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/charts.html

And this final chart sums it up the best, people across the earnings spectrum are simply not feeling good about the future, and that effects everyone’s’ spending habits.

Analysts are consumers as well, and we think this chart shows they sense, expect, feel it as well?

Citibank Earnings Revision Index

So, the NY Fed may be more accurate for the call April 30th, due to rear view mirror ability, but keeping one eye on the Atlanta peeps might serve investors well.

VIX

A good argument for putting $$ to work when the VIX Index goes north of 50?

We think an argument can be made that most of the data is heavily skewed to GFC and Covid, but heck the math is the math!

Jamie & Mark

Considering his age and amazing career we think it inevitable that there will be more posts like this in the future.

So, it made us wonder what his record of selling looks like.

We went through a rigorous methodical process to determine, he’s pretty good at this buying and selling stuff.


We would like to leave you with this, it’s a post from Mark Cuban. Rare to see him agree with POTUS, but for all our sake’s we hope they collaborate!

https://x.com/mcuban/status/1912628036668739778 

Here is the opening quotation:

Earnings next week:

TMT

  1. Alphabet (GOOGL) Thu, Apr 24
  2. Tesla Inc (TSLA) Tue, Apr 22
  3. T-Mobile (TMUS) Thu, Apr 24
  4. IBM (IBM) Wed, Apr 23
  5. AT&T (T) Wed, Apr 23
  6. SAP SE (SAP GR) Tue, Apr 22
  7. SK Hynix (000660 KS) Thu, Apr 24
  8. Verizon (VZ) Tue, Apr 22
  9. ServiceNow (NOW) Wed, Apr 23
  10. Texas Instrument (TXN) Wed, Apr 23
  11. Comcast (CMCSA) Thu, Apr 24
  12. Fiserv (FI) Thu, Apr 24
  13. Lam Re (LRCX) Wed, Apr 23
  14. Intel (INTC) Thu, Apr 24
  15. Charter (CHTR) Fri, Apr 25
  16. Fair Isaac (FICO) Fri, Apr 25
  17. MSCI Inc (MSCI) Tue, Apr 22
  18. Tyler Techn (TYL) Wed, Apr 23
  19. VeriSign Inc (VRSN) Thu, Apr 24
  20. SS&C Techn (SSNC) Thu, Apr 24
  21. Manhattan Assoc (MANH) Tue, Apr 22
  22. CACI Intl (CACI) Wed, Apr 23
  23. Interpublic Group (IPG) Thu, Apr 24
  24. Roku Inc (ROKU) Fri, Apr 25
  25. Appfolio Inc (APPF) Thu, Apr 24
  26. Pegasystems (PEGA) Tue, Apr 22
  27. Silicon Lab (SLAB) Thu, Apr 24
  28. Iridium C (IRDM) Tue, Apr 22
  29. Impinj Inc (PI) Wed, Apr 23
  30. Dassault Syst (DSY FP) Thu, Apr 24
  31. Nokia Oyj (NOKIA FH) Thu, Apr 24
  32. Check Point (CHKP) Wed, Apr 23
  33. STMicro (STMPA FP) Thu, Apr 24
  34. Rogers (RCI/B CN) Wed, Apr 23
  35. Mobileye (MBLY) Thu, Apr 24

Homebuilders

  1. NVR Inc (NVR) Tue, Apr 22
  2. PulteGroup (PHM) Tue, Apr 22
  3. Taylor Morrison (TMHC) Wed, Apr 23
  4. Meritage (MTH) Wed, Apr 23
  5. M/I Homes (MHO) Wed, Apr 23
  6. Tri Pointe Home (TPH) Thu, Apr 24
  7. Century C (CCS) Wed, Apr 23

Travel Leisure

  1. United Rentals (URI) Wed, Apr 23
  2. Las Vegas Sand (LVS) Wed, Apr 23
  3. Southwest Air (LUV) Thu, Apr 24
  4. Churchill Down (CHDN) Wed, Apr 23
  5. American Air (AAL) Thu, Apr 24
  6. Alaska Air (ALK) Wed, Apr 23
  7. Boyd Gaming (BYD) Thu, Apr 24
  8. SkyWest Inc (SKYW) Thu, Apr 24
  9. Travel + Leisure (TNL) Wed, Apr 23
  10. Harley-Davidson (HOG) Fri, Apr 25
  11. Monarch Casino (MCRI) Tue, Apr 22

Consumers

  1. Procter & Gamble (PG) Thu, Apr 24
  2. Philip Morris (PM) Wed, Apr 23
  3. PepsiCo Inc (PEP) Thu, Apr 24
  4. O’Reilly Auto (ORLY) Wed, Apr 23
  5. Colgate-Palmolive (CL) Fri, Apr 25
  6. Moody’s Corp (MCO) Tue, Apr 22
  7. Chipotle Mexican (CMG) Wed, Apr 23
  8. Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) Thu, Apr 24
  9. Kimberly-Clark (KMB) Tue, Apr 22
  10. Equifax Inc (EFX) Tue, Apr 22
  11. Rollins Inc (ROL) Wed, Apr 23
  12. Tractor Supply (TSCO) Thu, Apr 24
  13. Watsco Inc (WSO) Wed, Apr 23
  14. Genuine Parts (GPC) Tue, Apr 22
  15. TransUnion (TRU) Thu, Apr 24
  16. Avery Dennison (AVY) Wed, Apr 23
  17. Pool Corp (POOL) Thu, Apr 24
  18. LKQ Corp (LKQ) Thu, Apr 24
  19. Allison Transm (ALSN) Fri, Apr 25
  20. Lithia Motor (LAD) Wed, Apr 23
  21. Hasbro Inc (HAS) Thu, Apr 24
  22. Skechers USA (SKX) Thu, Apr 24
  23. ADT Inc (ADT) Thu, Apr 24
  24. AutoNation (AN) Fri, Apr 25
  25. FTI Consulting (FCN) Thu, Apr 24
  26. Group 1 Auto (GPI) Thu, Apr 24
  27. Gentex Corp (GNTX) Fri, Apr 25
  28. Darling Ingr (DAR) Thu, Apr 24
  29. Robert Half Inc (RHI) Fri, Apr 25
  30. Whirlpool (WHR) Wed, Apr 23
  31. CBIZ Inc (CBZ) Fri, Apr 25
  32. TriNet Group (TNET) Fri, Apr 25
  33. Boston Beer (SAM) Thu, Apr 24
  34. Tootsie Roll (TR) Thu, Apr 24
  35. Visteon Corp (VC) Thu, Apr 24

Basic Materials

  1. Southern Copper (SCCO) Fri, Apr 25
  2. Newmont (NEM) Wed, Apr 23
  3. Agnico Eagle (AEM CN) Thu, Apr 24
  4. Freeport (FCX) Thu, Apr 24
  5. Vale SA (VALE3 BZ) Thu, Apr 24
  6. Dow Inc (DOW) Thu, Apr 24
  7. LyondellBasell (LYB) Fri, Apr 25
  8. Steel Dynamic (STLD) Tue, Apr 22
  9. Teck Resources (TECK/B CN) Thu, Apr 24
  10. Reliance Inc (RS) Wed, Apr 23
  11. First Quantum (FM CN) Wed, Apr 23
  12. Eastman Chem (EMN) Thu, Apr 24
  13. Carpenter Techn (CRS) Thu, Apr 24
  14. NewMarket (NEU) Wed, Apr 23
  15. Balchem Corp (BCPC) Thu, Apr 24
  16. Element Solution (ESI) Wed, Apr 23
  17. Sensient Techn (SXT) Fri, Apr 25
  18. Minerals Techn (MTX) Thu, Apr 24
  19. Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) Fri, Apr 25
  20. UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM FH) Thu, Apr 24
  21. Akzo Nobel NV (AKZA NA) Wed, Apr 23
  22. Boliden AB (BOL SS) Wed, Apr 23
  23. Yara Intl ASA (YAR NO) Fri, Apr 25

Energy

  1. Schlumberger NV (SLB) Fri, Apr 25
  2. Phillips 66 (PSX) Fri, Apr 25
  3. Baker Hughes (BKR) Tue, Apr 22
  4. Valero Energy (VLO) Thu, Apr 24
  5. EQT Corp (EQT) Tue, Apr 22
  6. Halliburton (HAL) Tue, Apr 22
  7. Hess Midstream (HESM) Fri, Apr 25
  8. Range Resources (RRC) Tue, Apr 22
  9. Enphase Energy (ENPH) Tue, Apr 22
  10. Matador Res (MTDR) Wed, Apr 23
  11. ChampionX (CHX) Thu, Apr 24
  12. CNX Resources (CNX) Thu, Apr 24
  13. Whitecap Res (WCP CN) Wed, Apr 23
  14. Weatherford (WFRD) Tue, Apr 22
  15. Patterson-UTI (PTEN) Wed, Apr 23
  16. Oceaneering (OII) Wed, Apr 23
  17. Advantage Energy (AAV CN) Fri, Apr 25
  18. RPC Inc (RES) Thu, Apr 24
  19. Helix Energy (HLX) Wed, Apr 23

Insurers

  1. Hartford Insurance (HIG) Thu, Apr 24
  2. W R Berkley (WRB) Mon, Apr 21
  3. Erie Indemnity (ERIE) Thu, Apr 24
  4. Kinsale Capital (KNSL) Thu, Apr 24
  5. Old Republic Intl (ORI) Thu, Apr 24
  6. RLI Corp (RLI) Wed, Apr 23
  7. First American Fi (FAF) Wed, Apr 23
  8. Selective Insurance (SIGI) Wed, Apr 23
  9. Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) Wed, Apr 23
  10. Stewart Info (STC) Wed, Apr 23

REITs

  1. Digital Realty (DLR) Thu, Apr 24
  2. Weyerhaeuser Co (WY) Thu, Apr 24
  3. Gaming and Leisure (GLPI) Thu, Apr 24
  4. Healthpeak Prop (DOC) Thu, Apr 24
  5. Equity LifeStyle (ELS) Mon, Apr 21
  6. Agree Realty (ADC) Tue, Apr 22
  7. EastGroup Prop (EGP) Wed, Apr 23
  8. AGNC Investment (AGNC) Mon, Apr 21
  9. Essential Prop (EPRT) Wed, Apr 23
  10. Rithm Capital (RITM) Fri, Apr 25
  11. Phillips Edison (PECO) Thu, Apr 24
  12. Curbline Prop (CURB) Thu, Apr 24
  13. Getty Realty (GTY) Wed, Apr 23
  14. Veris Residential (VRE) Wed, Apr 23
  15. Ladder Capital (LADR) Fri, Apr 25
  16. Alexander & Baldwin (ALEX) Thu, Apr 24
  17. Apollo R Est (ARI) Thu, Apr 24
  18. ARMOUR Resi (ARR) Fri, Apr 25
  19. Dynex Capital (DX) Mon, Apr 21
  20. PennyMac M (PMT) Tue, Apr 22

Financials

  1. CME Group (CME) Wed, Apr 23
  2. Capital One (COF) Tue, Apr 22
  3. Ameriprise (AMP) Thu, Apr 24
  4. Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ) Thu, Apr 24
  5. Discover Fi (DFS) Wed, Apr 23
  6. CBRE Group (CBRE) Thu, Apr 24
  7. Raymond James (RJF) Wed, Apr 23
  8. First Citizens B (FCNCA) Thu, Apr 24
  9. Chubb Ltd (CB) Tue, Apr 22
  10. BNP Paribas SA (BNP FP) Thu, Apr 24
  11. Aon PLC (AON) Fri, Apr 25
  12. Synchrony (SYF) Tue, Apr 22
  13. Northern Trust (NTRS) Tue, Apr 22
  14. Principal Fincl (PFG) Thu, Apr 24
  15. East West Banc (EWBC) Tue, Apr 22
  16. SEI Investments (SEIC) Wed, Apr 23
  17. Stifel Financial (SF) Thu, Apr 24
  18. SouthState Corp (SSB) Thu, Apr 24
  19. Webster Fincl (WBS) Thu, Apr 24
  20. Western Alliance (WAL) Mon, Apr 21
  21. Mr Cooper Group (COOP) Wed, Apr 23
  22. Comerica Inc (CMA) Mon, Apr 21
  23. Wintrust Financial (WTFC) Mon, Apr 21
  24. Zions Bancorp (ZION) Mon, Apr 21
  25. Prosperity Banc (PB) Wed, Apr 23
  26. Old National Banc (ONB) Tue, Apr 22
  27. Virtu Financial (VIRT) Wed, Apr 23
  28. BOK Financial (BOKF) Mon, Apr 21
  29. Invesco Ltd (IVZ) Tue, Apr 22
  30. SLM Corp (SLM) Thu, Apr 24
  31. Columbia Banking (COLB) Thu, Apr 24
  32. Valley National B (VLY) Thu, Apr 24
  33. Glacier Bancorp (GBCI) Thu, Apr 24
  34. AllianceBernstein (AB) Thu, Apr 24
  35. Piper Sandler Cos (PIPR) Fri, Apr 25

HCare

  1. AbbVie (ABBV) Fri, Apr 25
  2. Sanofi SA (SAN FP) Thu, Apr 24
  3. Merck (MRK) Thu, Apr 24
  4. Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Tue, Apr 22
  5. Thermo Fisher (TMO) Wed, Apr 23
  6. Boston Scientific (BSX) Wed, Apr 23
  7. Danaher Corp (DHR) Tue, Apr 22
  8. Gilead (GILD) Thu, Apr 24
  9. Bristol-Myers (BMY) Thu, Apr 24
  10. Elevance Health (ELV) Tue, Apr 22
  11. HCA Health (HCA) Fri, Apr 25
  12. Edwards Life (EW) Wed, Apr 23
  13. ResMed Inc (RMD) Wed, Apr 23
  14. Centene Corp (CNC) Fri, Apr 25
  15. Quest Diagnostic (DGX) Tue, Apr 22
  16. Molina Health (MOH) Wed, Apr 23
  17. West Pharma (WST) Thu, Apr 24
  18. BioMarin Pharm (BMRN) Thu, Apr 24
  19. Penumbra Inc (PEN) Wed, Apr 23
  20. Avantor Inc (AVTR) Fri, Apr 25
  21. Encompass Health (EHC) Thu, Apr 24
  22. Medpace Holding (MEDP) Mon, Apr 21
  23. Chemed Corp (CHE) Wed, Apr 23
  24. Merit Medical (MMSI) Thu, Apr 24
  25. Integer Holding (ITGR) Thu, Apr 24
  26. PTC Therapeutics (PTCT) Fri, Apr 25
  27. Amedisys Inc (AMED) Thu, Apr 24
  28. PROCEPT Bio (PRCT) Thu, Apr 24
  29. Viking Thera (VKTX) Thu, Apr 24
  30. Kiniksa Pharma (KNSA) Wed, Apr 23
  31. PACS Group (PACS) Wed, Apr 23
  32. Teladoc Health (TDOC) Fri, Apr 25

AeroSpace/Defense

  1. General Electric (GE) Tue, Apr 22
  2. RTX Corp (RTX) Tue, Apr 22
  3. Boeing Co (BA) Wed, Apr 23
  4. Lockheed Martin (LMT) Tue, Apr 22
  5. Northrop (NOC) Tue, Apr 22
  6. General Dynamic (GD) Wed, Apr 23
  7. L3Harris (LHX) Thu, Apr 24
  8. Textron Inc (TXT) Thu, Apr 24
  9. Moog Inc (MOG/A) Fri, Apr 25

Industrials

  1. Union Pacific (UNP) Thu, Apr 24
  2. GE Vernova (GEV) Wed, Apr 23
  3. Amphenol (APH) Wed, Apr 23
  4. Republic Services (RSG) Thu, Apr 24
  5. 3M Co (MMM) Tue, Apr 22
  6. Carrier Global (CARR) Fri, Apr 25
  7. Norfolk South (NSC) Wed, Apr 23
  8. Otis Worldwide (OTIS) Wed, Apr 23
  9. Old Dominion (ODFL) Wed, Apr 23
  10. Westinghouse Air (WAB) Wed, Apr 23
  11. Vertiv Holding (VRT) Wed, Apr 23
  12. Dover Corp (DOV) Thu, Apr 24
  13. Teledyne Tech (TDY) Wed, Apr 23
  14. Lennox Intl (LII) Wed, Apr 23
  15. Packaging Corp (PKG) Tue, Apr 22
  16. Carlisle Co (CSL) Wed, Apr 23
  17. Graco Inc (GGG) Wed, Apr 23
  18. Masco Corp (MAS) Wed, Apr 23
  19. Comfort System (FIX) Fri, Apr 25
  20. Saia Inc (SAIA) Fri, Apr 25
  21. Mueller Inds (MLI) Wed, Apr 23
  22. Knight-Swift (KNX) Wed, Apr 23
  23. Ryder System (R) Wed, Apr 23
  24. Valmont Inds (VMI) Tue, Apr 22
  25. GATX Corp (GATX) Wed, Apr 23
  26. Zurn Water (ZWS) Tue, Apr 22
  27. Hexcel Corp (HXL) Mon, Apr 21
  28. Plexus Corp (PLXS) Wed, Apr 23
  29. OSI System (OSIS) Fri, Apr 25
  30. AZZ Inc (AZZ) Mon, Apr 21
  31. Terex Corp (TEX) Fri, Apr 25
  32. Hub Group (HUBG) Fri, Apr 25
  33. Knowles Corp (KN) Thu, Apr 24
  34. Tutor Perini (TPC) Fri, Apr 25
  35. Apogee Ent (APOG) Thu, Apr 24

Utilities

  1. NextEra Energy (NEE) Wed, Apr 23
  2. Xcel Energy (XEL) Thu, Apr 24
  3. PG&E Corp (PCG) Thu, Apr 24
  4. Entergy Corp (ETR) Thu, Apr 24
  5. DTE Energy (DTE) Fri, Apr 25
  6. CenterPoint (CNP) Thu, Apr 24
  7. FirstEnergy (FE) Wed, Apr 23
  8. CMS Energy (CMS) Thu, Apr 24
  9. Portland Gen (POR) Fri, Apr 25

Have a wonderful holiday weekend!

Best,

Meraki Trading Team

About Meraki Global Advisors

Meraki Global Advisors is a leading outsourced trading firm that eliminates investment managers’ implicit and explicit deadweight loss resulting from inefficient trading desk architectures. With locations in Park City, UT and Hong Kong, Meraki’s best-in-class traders provide conflict-free 24×6 global trading in every asset class, region, and country to hedge funds and asset managers of all sizes. Meraki Global Advisors LLC is a FINRA member and SEC Registered and Meraki Global Advisors (HK) Ltd is licensed and regulated by the Securities & Futures Commission of Hong Kong.

For more information, visit the Meraki Global Advisors website and LinkedIn page
Contact:
Mary McAvey
VP of Business Development

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